American consumers see debt delinquency risk rising, higher long-term inflation: NY Fed

American consumers’ expectations about the risk of debt delinquency rose to the highest level in more than four years last month, while concerns about elevated inflation over the longer-term also increased, according to a report released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data found that in its Survey of Consumer Expectations for September, the average probability of consumers not being able to make a minimum debt payment rose for the fourth consecutive month to 14.2% – the highest level since April 2020 when it was 16.1%. 

That suggests some Americans are facing increased budget pressures as they look to manage their borrowing. At the same time, consumers’ perceptions and expectations for credit access improved in September for the fourth straight month.

Consumers’ inflation expectations were unchanged at 3% over the next year, but increased from 2.5% to 2.7% at the three-year horizon, and from 2.8% to 2.9% at the five-year horizon.

INFLATION MEASURE CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE FED FELL TO 2.2% IN AUGUST

The probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months was flat in September when compared with August, though the probability of voluntarily leaving a job ticked up from 19.1% in August to 20.4% in September, the highest level since July.

Expectations of a higher unemployment rate one year from now approached the lowest level in 2024, with respondents putting the probability at 36.2%, slightly higher than the 36.1% in February.

The New York Fed’s report comes as the central bank is weighing how it will proceed with interest rate cuts. Fed policymakers lowered the benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September from a range of 5.25% to 5.5% to 4.75% to 5% amid progress in slowing the pace of inflation.

INFLATION RISES 2.4% IN SEPTEMBER, ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

The Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI), a popular inflation gauge, slowed to 2.4% in September – closer to the Fed’s 2% target, though it remained higher than LSEG economists expected. Inflation has gradually cooled over the last few years after this inflationary cycle peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that recent data doesn’t show the U.S. economy slowing down that much, adding that “while we do not want to overreact to this data or look through it, I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting.”

US ECONOMY ADDED 254K JOBS IN SEPTEMBER, WELL ABOVE EXPECTATIONS

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at its next meeting, which would lower the benchmark to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Interest rate traders see a 94.1% probability of the Fed cutting by that much next month compared to a 5.9% chance of leaving rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Economic data released in the last two weeks, including the CPI data and a hotter than expected jobs report for September, has cooled markets’ expectations of more aggressive rate cuts at the Fed’s November meeting. A month ago, traders saw a 27% chance that rates would be lowered by an additional 50 basis points in Nov. to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, per CME FedWatch.

The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting will begin the day after Election Day and run Nov. 6-7.

Reuters contributed to this report.